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Policymaking in the American States, 1787–2020
with Elliott Ash and Nicolas Longuet-Marx
We construct a novel corpus covering the universe of statutes enacted by U.S. state legislatures and Congress since Independence and, using large language models, extract the distinct policies contained in these laws. We then estimate a model of policymaking to quantify how policies diffuse horizontally across states and vertically between state and federal governments.
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How Voters Make up Their Mind
with Michel Gutmann, Oksana Kuznetsova, Vincent Pons and Andrea Prat
Using a panel survey of roughly 5,000 voters fielded during the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election, in which we oversample the initially undecided, we estimate a dynamic model of how voters make up their minds. The model allows us to distinguish three forces behind the decline in undecidedness: changes in the relative appeal of the candidates, changes in voters’ uncertainty, and voters’ reluctance to declare a preference.